The Production and Income Risk Analysis of Traditional Milkfish Pond in Sidoarjo, Indonesia: A Seasonal Perspective

Abstract

The research aims to analyze production and income along with its risks in milkfish pond cultivation during the rainy season and dry season. The research was conducted in Jabon District, Sidoarjo, Indonesia. Primary data was taken from interviews with 62 farmers of milkfish pond. Income analysis was carried out using quantitative descriptive methods, while risk analysis was carried out using the Coefficient of Variation (CV) from the production and income of milkfish cultivation businesses in both rainy and dry seasons. The results show that the average expected value of milkfish production in the rainy season is 747 Kg/Ha, while in the dry season is 474 Kg/Ha. The average expected income value in the milkfish pond business is IDR 9,980,956/Ha in the rainy season, and IDR 7,569,411 in the dry season. This study found that the risk level for milkfish production is low in the rainy season and vice versa in the dry season. However, the risk level for milkfish farming business income is high in both seasons. These findings indicate that milkfish pond farmers need to consider more intensive risk management strategies, especially during the dry season. Practical implementations can be drawn that entails the development of business diversification strategies, increasing resilience to extreme weather conditions, and the implementation of technology that reduce production and income risks.